After Oklahoma knocked Texas Tech down a peg or two this last weekend, Texas is the new No. 2 in the BCS standings behind Alabama, and right in front of Oklahoma. Can Texas hold on to its lead? That is yet to be seen. I thought before the game that with a dominating victory by Oklahoma, the Sooners would have jumped Texas in the BCS standings and taken over the No. 2 spot. But, despite the efforts of the coaches…they jumped Oklahoma from No. 5 to No. 2…Texas is still in front of the Sooners with one game left for both teams.
What could happen? Well if everyone wins out (by everyone I mean Texas, Texas Tech, and Oklahoma) as already stated the highest ranked Big XII team would go to the Big XII championship, and actually play for a chance to go to the BCS championship game. Texas could use a dominating win over the aggies this coming Thursday and a lack luster win by Oklahoma over Oklahoma State. That might not be enough however, and there is an even worse scenario. If Oklahoma loses to Okie Lite, and Texas and Tech both win out (Tech plays Baylor)…guess what happens? Tech goes to the Big XII championship game because of their head to head win against Texas! So the Oklahoma game won’t even really matter. And there is another scenario where the Oklahoma win over Tech won’t matter. If Tech loses to Baylor, Texas can sneak by the aggies and Oklahoma can pound the Cowboys and it won’t matter. Why? Because Texas and Oklahoma will be tied, and Texas holds the tie breaker with its head to head win.
So what is best for Texas this weekend? Go Baylor Bears and if that doesn’t work, go Oklahoma State Cowboys!
BCS Standings
Filed under: Post-Game Reality Tagged: | bcs, Oklahoma Sooners, Texas Longhorns, texas tech
Not to get our hopes up, but I do not believe OU will jump Texas so long as Texas takes care of business. Here’s my thinking…
The top-five of the coaches poll is as follows:
1. Alabama (56) 11-0 1518 1
2. Oklahoma (4) 10-1 1412 5
3. Florida (1) 10-1 1401 3
4. Texas 10-1 1370 4
5. USC 9-1 1288 6
Texas is behind OU by two spots. It is unlikely that OU can widen that gap. It would require either Alabama to lose to Auburn and fall below OU, but remain above Texas or have a lower-ranked team jump ahead of Texas, but not above OU. While the first is not an impossible scenario, I highly doubt that Alabama would remain above Texas with a loss to a six-loss Auburn team. I also doubt that USC could jump ahead of Texas even with the most impressive wins over Notre Dame and UCLA. Boise State is the only other team worth mentioning in the top-ten and they only have a game against Fresno State.
A much more likely scenario is any of the following: Florida jumping ahead of OU with a win by Florida and a lack-luster game from OU against OSU or Florida State beating Florida and having them drop out of the top-five; either way, it would remove the buffer between OU and Texas.
The USA Today poll favors OU by 2.75%, the Harris by <1%.
While the polls favor OU, the computers still favor Texas, by 6%!
This is what Texas fans fear could change enough to have OU jump Texas in next week’s BCS poll. However, I believe Texas will still have a significant edge with the computers. OU will bolster their resume if the win against OSU next weekend, however, adding a three-loss OSU team that would drop to ~no. 20 probably won’t be enough.
The BCS does NOT count quality losses, so the argument that OU’s only loss is to a top 5 team is moot. OU does have wins against Texas Tech (8) and TCU (14)- both home wins. That pails in comparison to Texas’ wins against OU (2) and Missouri (11)- one home and one on a neutral field. The ironic thing is that since quality wins DO count, OU’s success is only helping Texas.
So a win against OSU should be a wash since they will have both have that win.
…and if any Sooner has a problem with Texas representing the Big XII South, I have one comment, “SCOREBOARD!!!”
One more thought…
We’ve discussed the three-way tie scenario… And if it’s a three-way tie because OU, Tech and Texas all lose this weekend, then who really cares… We know that if OU wins and Tech loses, then Texas will win the tie-breaker by Texas’ win over OU.
But what if OU loses and Tech wins? Is it the end of the world if Texas doesn’t represent the south in the Big XII title game?
I would argue that not only does it not hurt Texas’ chances of making it to the national title game, but it is in fact the BEST scenario that the horns are facing. OU would obviously drop out of the race. Tech would represent the south and would face Missouri. At this point I doubt the Red Raiders would be able jump back in the race even with one loss and bolstering their resume with a win over Missouri. They would have to jump USC and Penn State, also with one loss each.
Texas would get an extra week to rest before the bowl season and wouldn’t be exposed to a potential loss from a Missouri team that would be hell-bent on revenge- plus history proves that it is tough to beat a team twice in the same year.
Texas would still be sitting pretty in the second BCS spot watching as Florida and Alabama (presumably) try and knock one another off, USC looks to survive against UCLA and Tech tries to claw their way back in against Missouri. Sounds pretty sweet to me!
So there’s no need to watch this weekend’s games after Thursday, right?